1. History
Trump was re-elected president on November 5, 2024 and is about to begin his second term as president. Since 2016, his administration took a conservative stance on the cannabis industry, following the Republican party’s views. While cannabis legalization grew in many places, his government allowed states to make their own rules and stayed careful at the federal level. This led to big differences in cannabis policies across states without much federal help for the industry. Under Biden, although federal legalization didn’t happen completely, there was a more accepting attitude toward medical and recreational cannabis. Trump’s re-election probably indicates a move back to conservative policies on cannabis.
2. Scope
Trump’s re-election mostly impacts the United States, especially states with large legal cannabis markets like California and Colorado, along with those trying to legalize it. The international market could also be affected, particularly in Canada and some parts of Latin America that have U.S. cannabis trade interests. Key players in this industry include manufacturers, retailers, investors, and medical institutions.
3. Causes
Several reasons contributed to Trump’s re-election:
- Economic: Trump’s supporters are inclined towards conservative policies to address rising public spending.
- Social: Conservative values, including those related to abortion, have gained popularity, bringing traditional views into focus during the election.
- Political: The Republican emphasis on local issues and public safety bolstered support for Trump.
Moreover, frustration with inflation and immigration problems during Biden’s presidency led to increased backing for Trump.
It’s also important to note that there have been significant changes in societal attitudes which played a role in shaping the political landscape. All these factors collectively explain Trump’s re-election and pose challenges for the cannabis industry.
4. Impact
Trump’s re-election could have different effects on the cannabis industry. In the short term, cannabis businesses might face more rules and legal issues, especially with operations across state lines and federal taxes. This could shake investor confidence and slow down growth for new cannabis companies. In the long term, if Trump’s administration decides to tighten federal control, it could stall industry growth and push some companies out of business. This shift might also influence public support for legalization, making it harder to make progress in other states.
5. Reactions
This event will lead to different responses from people involved in cannabis.
- Supporters of legalization may step up their efforts to push for more legalization at the state level.
- Conflicts between state and federal laws could become clearer, especially as states like California and New York may ignore federal rules on cannabis.
- Cannabis companies might focus more on local operations to avoid risks from federal policies.
- Investors might look for chances in international cannabis markets to protect themselves from uncertainties in U.S. policies.
6. Future
In the next few years, if Trump’s administration sticks to conservative policies, efforts to legalize cannabis at the federal level might slow down or even go backward. If Republicans stay strong in Congress, it could be harder to push for nationwide legalization. Uncertainty in policies might make the cannabis industry more careful about following rules, which could slow down efforts to create industry standards. At the same time, individual states might speed up their own cannabis policies to respond to possible federal challenges. Over the next five to ten years, the cannabis industry may pay more attention to state laws and markets, while also looking at international markets as a key area for U.S. cannabis companies.
